Chart of the day

Where do we stand fundamentally?

The inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold remains a critical factor. A weaker dollar has supported gold prices, while a stronger dollar could cap gains. Safe-haven demand for gold has offset recent USD strength amid global uncertainties.

The XAUUSD is rejected from 2950 which is seen as a strong uptrend channel resistance. This is strong near-term resistance for an upside continuation, and I see this as the end of the long-term third wave and the beginning of a fourth-wave pullback. A break above 2950 can invalidate this view and will lead to an extended third wave higher. We could see a $200 pullback.

We are in a possible terminal phase of an uptrend third long-term wave with an indicated resistance of 2950. A breakout above this resistance will lead to an extension higher in the prolonged third wave and a rejection here we have can lead to a complete downside reversal which would be confirmed by a breakout below 2860.

_{You can take a near-term short-trade entry with an SL above 2950 to target 2800 and lower.}