TRADE SETUP

Where do we stand fundamentally?

U.S. Restrictions on H20 Chip Sales to China: The U.S. government has banned NVIDIA from selling its H20 AI chips to China, citing concerns that these chips could be used in supercomputers. This restriction, announced on April 15, 2025, will result in a $5.5 billion charge to NVIDIA’s Q1 earnings due to inventory write-downs and commitments. NVIDIA’s stock dropped over 5% in after-hours trading following the news, with some posts on X noting a further decline of around 6%. This move is part of escalating U.S.-China tech tensions, impacting NVIDIA’s ability to sell a chip designed to comply with previous export controls

NVDA is retesting the broken falling wedge 105 level. A bounce from here we need for a test of 125 before another directional move in the NVDA. I still regard this as the fourth-wave pullback as long as we are above 97.

We need a sustained breakout above 112 for the rally higher to continue after the bounce and for a test of 125

_{I am taking a near-term long-trade entry with an SL below 175 to target 215. You can also trade it with options by buying call options.}